Import HDPE film market in Egypt under pressure from Turkey, China

14-Jun-10
Middle Eastern producers announced reductions of US$10-70/ton on their initial June HDPE film prices by from their May levels in Egypt, as per Chemorbis. However, the lower prices in Egypt are still at a premium vs the prices by the same producers in Turkey and China. In China, Middle Eastern producers elected to issue the same amount of decrease as in Egypt, by $10-70/ton, for June HDPE film, due to the poor demand and lower distribution market prices in China. However, the initial June range for Middle Eastern HDPE film is US$140-160/ton below the initial June HDPE film range in Egypt. Currently, the high end of the overall Middle Eastern HDPE film offers vanished in China as prices center on the low end of the initial range reported for the month. Taking the current Middle Eastern offers in China into consideration, a theoretical Middle Eastern HDPE film price to Egypt comes to US$1140/ton after deducting nearly US$45/ton freight back to the Middle East from China and adding US$45/ton freight from the Middle East to Egypt. This level indicates there is a US$160/ton premium on the offers given to Egypt by the same regional producers. In Turkey, Middle Eastern HDPE film prices initially recorded US$10-80/ton decreases for June before they continued to lose further ground in the following weeks. A major regional producer elected to down revise prices by another US$30-60/ton while two other producers also adopted a similar pricing policy by announcing additional cuts of US$20-40/ton and US$30/ton. Now, the overall decreases from these producers stand at US$40-100/ton, US$50-90/ton and US$100-110/ton compared to May. Considering the current overall Middle Eastern HDPE film range in Turkey, a theoretical Middle Eastern HDPE film offer comes to US$1180-1220/ton in Egypt, after deducting US$85/ton freight from the Middle East to Turkey and adding US$45/ton freight from the Middle East to Egypt. This theoretical range show that the Middle Eastern HDPE film offers in Egypt carry around a US$120/ton premium over the offers given in Turkey by the same producers. These calculations show that the Middle Eastern HDPE film prices are under downward pressure in Egypt due to the lower prices reported in other global markets. Meanwhile, when turning eyes to the local market, the local HDPE producer SIDPEC lowered their June film prices by EGP300/ton (US$52/ton) to EGP7300/ton (US$1288/ton) on ex-Alexandria, cash not including VAT basis. Meanwhile, the overall distribution market stands at EGP7900-8100/ton (US$1267-1299/ton without VAT) on-ex-warehouse, cash including VAT basis. When deducting US$30/ton customs and clearing charges from the local level, it comes to US$1237-1269/ton on CIF equivalent basis and poses as another competitive choice against Middle Eastern imports, especially when considering their prompt availability advantage.
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