Russian ethylene capacity is predicted to rise by around four-fold in the next two decades by 2030. The driving factors can be narrowed to feedstock availability and rising domestic demand. Propylene production is also expected to increase approximately 4.5-fold, partly from cracker developments and partly through refinery projects. However, forecasting propylene capacity is more difficult than ethylene, particularly in relation to cracker feedstocks, and thus long term capacity forecasts could prove unreliable.
The Russian Ministry of Energy expects ethylene production capacity to reach 11.548 million tpa by 2030, based on assumption of investments not only in proposed plants, but in the infrastructure including product pipelines, road and rail. Under consideration are development of gas deposits and feedstock transportation. Six main clusters have been identified by the Ministry, to provide the basis for chemical industry development. These regions include the Privolzhsky (Volga region), the Caspian, North-West, West Siberia, East Siberia and the Far East. West Siberia is expected to see ethane extraction volumes rise to 3.7 mln tpa by 2015 and to 8.5 mln tpa by 2030. In East Siberia large petrochemical facilities are under review in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Irkutsk region. East Siberia and Yakutia by 2020 could produce up to 77.8 bln cubic metres of gas pa which could rise to up 91.1 bln cubic metres by 2030, according to Ministry calculations. By 2020, production volume of ethane in East Siberia could reach up to 4 mln tons and propane up to 1.7 mln tons.