Players make their price forecasts for the future

07-Jun-10
The new ChemOrbis “Price Forecast” tool allows players to make their own forecasts and then compare them with the rest of the market for the following four weeks. It allows users to view the collective forecast broken down by traders/distributors, converters and producers. For the Southeast Asian market, traders appear more pessimistic than the converters regarding future homo PP prices in the import market. Traders forecasted last week that prices would move even below the US$1215/ton threshold this week, while others forecast price ranges at US$1215-1265/ton and at US$1265-1315/ton. Converters on the other hand forecast at higher levels, even as high as US$1365-1415/ton. Producers’ forecasts show steady prices for the next two weeks before moving lower in the third week. In Southeast Asia’s PVC market, majority of sellers and buyers predict import prices at US$905-955/ton this week, but the level is forecast to move down to US$855-905/ton by next week and remain between these two ranges for the rest of the month. In the LDPE market there are very mixed opinions about the price direction with more buyers foreseeing higher prices compared to traders. For HDPE, most forecasters peg the import range at US$1180-1240/ton for this week. Despite reports of HDPE film prices in China as low as US$1080/ton CFR China, very few forecast prices under US$1120/ton for Southeast Asia. In the LLDPE market, despite the low season, players do not foresee prices falling below the range of US$1065-1135/ton in the next four weeks. For GPPS, buyers clearly see a downward trend starting this week. In the Chinese market, traders and converters agreed that the homo-PP range would be around US$1240-1300/ton this week, but looking ahead traders were more pessimistic, forecasting the range to move down to US$1180-1240/ton next week. Local acetylene based PVC prices saw varied opinions for this week. For the following week, a lower forecast was made at the range of US$835-885/ton, but stability was foreseen for the rest of the month after that. Similar to the Southeast Asian market, in China, there is a clear gap between sellers and buyers’ perceptions of the LDPE film market outlook as forecasts were far apart. In Turkey, both buyers and sellers agree that PP raffia prices are on a downward trend for the rest of the month. Traders forecast that Petkim will reduce fibre prices two weeks later to a range of US$1475-1525/ton. In the PVC market most players forecast prices this week at US$1015-1065/ton CFR Turkey, including all duties. The majority of players expects a downward revision from Petkim on its PVC prices this week and then expects the producer to hold prices for the next four weeks at US$1035-1085/ton. In the GPPS market, the majority of players expect local prices to be at US$1645-1695/ton this week before moving swiftly downward to US$1545-1595/ton next week. In Italy the majority of players forecast the homo-PP injection range at a lower level than the current range at €1235-1285/ton. By the third and fourth weeks, buyers expect to see lower prices even below €1185/ton. In the PVC market, contrary to other polymers, players see a firming trend in the third and fourth weeks of the forecast period. Price ranges on the “Price Forecast” tool are determined by the ChemOrbis Index methodology and users should enter price forecasts based on the rules applicable to that country. For example, price ranges for China’s import market are based on CFR China, cash and do not include any duties, however, for Turkey, price ranges should be considered with all applicable antidumping and customs duties included on CFR, cash basis. The products available on Price Forecast also follow the individual countries’ methodologies. Links to all of the methodologies can be found under the FAQ section of the tool or under the Price Index section of ChemOrbis. The “Price Forecast” tool is free to everyone during the beta period although a login is required. All entries are kept strictly confidential and are only used to contribute to the collective report. To use the “Price Forecast” tool, players place their forecasts by marking one of several price ranges for the following week and the next three weeks afterwards. Price ranges are determined by the system each week using the current ChemOrbis Price Indexes as a base; therefore each week may present different price range options depending on how the market evolved in the current week. In order to submit a forecast on the “Price Forecast” tool, all four weeks must be entered. In order to see forecasts which were entered in previous weeks, the user must have entered a forecast for the current week first.
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