Naphtha exports from India rise in July, unable to satiate demand

Premiums on naphtha cargoes for July lifting from India on free-on-board (FOB) basis have increased to US$25/ton- an 80% increase in premiums as compared to June. This price hike can be attributed to a tight naphtha supply situation despite increased run rates in Northeast Asian plants, mainly because of drastically reduced volumes of exports from the West. Western exports for July arrival are less than 150,000 tons, as compared to 800,000 tons in May. Premiums can be estimated to increase on persistently robust demand from Northeast Asia. Naphtha exports for July from India are estimated at increase by 3% to 750,000 tons, as the domestic consumers- fertiliser and power plants, switch to cheaper gas. Fertiliser and power plants in India can switch between naphtha and gas, depending on price economics. Gas supplies in India have increased, after Reliance started pumping natural gas from its massive deep-sea field in the Bay of Bengal in April. Exports from India are not expected to increase because of a scheduled shutdown by Indian Oil Corp (IOC) at its 160,000 bpd crude distillation unit in Mathura for 4 weeks from June-July.
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