As per a recently completed
report on the market scenario of global Polystyrene
business by CMAI, 2005 was a difficult year
for Polystyrene. The growth of Polystyrene as
well as EPS was negative mainly because of lower
demand from China - the leading consumer of
PS and EPS globally. Higher prices of feedstocks
also did not augur well and extensive capacity
additions created further problems. Changes
in consumer technologies away from VCRs, CDs
and CRT TVs are also depressing consumption
growth in the oldest major thermoplastics. The
2004 structural shortage of styrene in Asia
and high prices created by benzene, tightened
the regional PS export market. A similar slowdown
was expected in 2005, but the slowdown in demand
mitigated this potential.
About half of all benzene production
is consumed by styrene production, and half
of styrene production is used to make PS. In
the forecast period upto 2010, CMAI believes
that prices will ease, causing demand growth
rates to improve. High propylene values are
expected to make polypropylene less attractive
as a competing resin. However, demand will be
even lower than CMAI's current forecast if crude
oil prices remain at current high levels. Now
that benzene tightness has eased, crude oil
remains the primary driver of sustained high
prices for PS.
EPS demand in 2005 is expected to post slower
growth due to significantly diminished demand
from China's construction sector. Demand for
EPS in packaging applications has also slowed
due to a shift to paper. In North America and
West Europe, growth in the packaging sector
has declined, however growth in construction
applications has made up the difference. Unlike
many products, EPS demand is growing in almost
every corner of the world. Asia, particularly
China, has been adding EPS capacity at an incredible
rate. Operating rates should remain relatively
low. The fear of overcapacity exists in China,
as its domestic demand has slowed, and imports
might become more competitive. The excess EPS
capacity in China, as well as the rest of Asia,
is resulting in EPS being shipped to all corners
of the world. In 2005, EPS demand in North America
has been very strong, yet production has not,
as cost competitive imports from Asia have increased.
EPS is at a different stage in the product lifecycle
and does not face the same issues as a mature
product, such as polystyrene and hence EPS profitability
has been much better than PS due to its growth
patterns.
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