| Following a slump in demand caused by the recession, benzene, including styrene and cumene, experienced growing demand in 2011, with world demand forecasted to be 42 mln tons. This outlook is higher than the previous demand peak of 41 mln metric tons in 2007, according to a new, IHS Chemical global market study. According to the report, world demand for benzene is expected to grow at an average rate of slightly more than 3% during the next five years, reaching nearly 50 mln metric tons by the end of 2016. Ethylbenzene/styrene, cumene/phenol and cyclohexane will continue to consume more than 80% of the benzene produced in the coming years, and will have a combined annual growth rate of 3.5%. The benzene market bottomed out in 2009 during the recession, with demand falling to 71% of global operating rates. Since then, demand has grown faster than capacity additions, so benzene producers are starting to see some stability in the market. In addition, with stability, some of the benzene projects put on hold due to the recession are now restarting, particularly those in China and the emerging world, but for some refineries, the future for benzene production remains bleak. Since benzene is produced mainly as a by-product, the supply of benzene is driven mostly by the fate of the main products gasoline, ethylene and paraxylene, than by the profitability or demand for benzene. After experiencing record profitability in the years prior to the onset of the global financial crisis, refineries today find themselves facing a glut of new capacity. Profitability has dropped as global operating rates have fallen to near-term lows. In this environment, refineries are expected to enter a rationalization phase. A number of shutdowns have been announced, but more are anticipated which will impact supply of benzene. In many cases, mandates favoring renewable fuels reduce the demand for petroleum-based gasoline. Since benzene production is a byproduct of gasoline production, this has a negative impact on benzene supply. Increased auto efficiency also lowers the demand for gasoline and, therefore, benzene supply. However, in the emerging economies such as China, the dynamic is quite different, as the growth in automobiles is rapidly creating a strong appetite for gasoline and diesel fuel. China is now the largest auto market in the world, so it is not surprising then that, despite the global refinery overcapacity, Asia continues to add refineries to fuel its growing demand for gasoline, and along with the growth in gasoline production comes growth in benzene supply. The shift to lighter feedslates for ethylene crackers in some regions is also reducing the amount of benzene produced but this is being offset by the addition of new paraxylene production, which is adding associated benzene co-product production. Benzene, along with ethylene, is used to produce styrene, which, in turn, is used to produce materials that create rubber, plastic, insulation, fiberglass, pipes, automobile and boat parts, food containers, and carpet backing. According to the IHS Chemical, despite its status as one of the highest volume commodity chemicals traded, the styrene industry�s recent history has been bleak. The industry is emerging from a long consolidation process that was needed to heal itself and transition from the imbalances in the past decade, where there was too much new capacity and too little growth. The supply demand balances are finally portraying an industry that has a positive future, with operating rates improving as the economy recovers. Since 2006, the styrene industry has added 3.1 million metric tons of net capacity--almost 10% above the 2006 baseline. The increase in capacity would have been nearly double this figure had the industry not shut down about 3 mln metric tons of capacity in the same period. According to IHS, world trade in styrene continues to grow from 6.8 mln metric tons in 2006, to nearly 9.4 mln metric tons in 2016, an increase of nearly 40% in 10 years. 2011 was a disappointing year for styrene, largely because of the lofty expectations that were set based on the strong growth seen in 2010. The growth rate in 2011 slowed and deteriorated at the end of the year as the average demand growth fell from a modest 2.5% pace to about zero. Demand growth for the better part of 2011 was actually not too bad and not far from the historical average growth rates for styrene,� said author Peter Feng, director of styrenics and phenolics at IHS Chemical, �but it feels bad based on unrealistic expectations that were set in 2010, when demand growth was just under 9% on a global basis. The outlook for styrene continues to be positive with higher forecasted operating rates.� The largest regional importing region by far is Northeast Asia led by China. The Indian Subcontinent is the next largest importer since it continues to have rapid growth, but still has no styrene capacity of its own. The largest exporting regions are the Middle East and North America with the Middle East taking the top spot after new export oriented production facilities started up. The salvation of styrene producers, ship owners and traders alike has been the strength of China�s styrene demand combined with the weakness of its domestic styrene supply. It is forecast to sustain import volumes in excess of 3 mln metric tpa, but that could increase if demand grows faster than expected. An invigorated environmental movement has hindered demand growth for styrenic derivatives, which is due, in part, to their use in food service containers and other single-use applications, which, although technically recyclable, are seldom included in collection by residential recycling programs. Concerns about litter, end of life and sustainability issues add to the poor public perception of polystyrene and expandable polystyrene. The impact of the recent listing of styrene as reasonably anticipated to be a carcinogen in the U.S. bears watching and is spurring the development of some �styrene-free� products. |
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