Propylene is the second most important feedstock for petrochemical products. The major propylene derivatives include polypropylene(PP), acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, cumene/phenol, oxo alcohols, acrylic acid, isopropyl alcohol, oligomers and other miscellaneous intermediates.
The global demand of 16.4 million tons in 1980
to around 68 million tons in 2005, indicates
an average annual growth of about 6%. Demand
for propylene is expected to reach a level of
81 million tons by 2010. This increase will
be driven by the demand for PP (polypropylene).
PP is expected to show at about 7% until 2010.
Propylene demand is expected to grow faster
than supply. Propylene supply/demand conditions
and pricing are strongly dependent on refinery
production and the supply/demand balance, operating
rates and feedstock slates in the ethylene industry.
Globally, more than 25% of the new crackers
are currently based on ethane, and therefore
will produce little propylene. Propylene is
produced commercially on purpose by dehydrogenation
of propane, but this is an expensive route that
generally requires favorable feedstock pricing
to be competitive. The amount of propylene produced
by propane dehydrogenation is small compared
to other sources.
Expanded or converted sources of propylene will have to be found, whether as an on-purpose supply or from redirection of existing capacity. Depending on the demand and alternative value for ethylene versus propylene, it may be economically advantageous to either produce more propylene at the expense of ethylene or produce propylene by alternative means. The primary sources of propylene have been as a by-product of ethylene production in steam crackers and from refinery FCC streams. An alternative commercialized technology is propane dehydrogenation, which is only economical under certain conditions in certain areas of the world. As propylene demand continues to outpace ethylene demand, there is increasing interest and need in finding or developing alternative sources of propylene without adversely affecting ethylene availability. Conversion to higher activity FCC catalysts, a proven approach to increase propylene production, is not always the best solution due to competing economic and technical drivers to produce motor gasoline, FCC's primary product. New technologies, using an expanding range of feedstocks, may change conventional propylene supply dynamics and economics, as well as the competitive regional supply balance.
Although PP will remain the principal propylene derivative and the driver of propylene demand, the other derivative technology developments may also influence propylene demand: potential for acrylonitrile production from propane; the non-coproduct route to propylene oxide; catalytic distillation for cumene/phenol production; the production and product characteristics of non-phosgene based polycarbonate and the effect on its principal raw material, bisphenol-A; and advances in oxo alcohol production technology.