China will be principal driver for global polyethylene demand to 2020

China is the most attractive market for polyethylene in the world and will be the principal driver for global polyethylene demand to 2020 as per a report by Global Markets Direct . The Chinese polyethylene market size was US$13,865 mln in 2008 and is forecast to grow by more than 8%, accounting for nearly 17% of the global polyethylene demand in 2020. China has emerged as the principal manufacturing and export location for low value plastic products in the world due to low cost manpower and significant government support. The rapid increase in downstream processing capacity additions, primarily geared towards export markets, will be the main driver of polyethylene demand in the future. With over 40% of the demand dependent on imports, China will continue to remain the largest importer of polyethylene in the world in spite of the many polyethylene capacity additions expected to come on-stream in the next few years. The Middle East region will see more than 7 mln tons of polyethylene capacity additions in the next few years. Accounting for more than 50% of the global planned polyethylene capacity additions, the Middle East region will emerge as the largest exporter of polyethylene in the world. Production of polyethylene in most countries will be unable to compete with the Middle East production as feedstock costs of the Middle East producers are 1/5th of the cost of feedstock available to Asian and European producers. Over 40% of the global polyethylene demand comes from developed markets of North America and Europe and the demand from these two regions is expected to remain stagnant going to 2020. North America accounted for 21% of the global polyethylene demand of $105,784 mln in 2008, and according to estimates, it will account for 15% of the global polyethylene demand in 2020. The demand growth in the US will be stagnant as the economy goes into recession in 2009 and the economic outlook for the next few years is bleak. The absence of capacity additions in the downstream processing sectors is the single most important reason for demand stagnation in the US. Europe accounted for 20% of the global polyethylene demand of $105,784 mln in 2008, and according to estimates, it will account for 15% of the global polyethylene demand in 2020. Demand from Spain and Italy were the main drivers for European demand growth in the past decade. However, the absence of significant growth from large economies like Germany and France will reduce the average growth for the region. The growth from Spain and Italy will not offset the decline in demand from the traditionally large consuming countries of France and Germany.