Price trends of oil, polymer feedstocks and commodity polymers for the week of 25th June 2007

SUMMARY Oil prices increased sharply to US$69.15/barrel due to inventory build up in USA and lower availability due to a strike in Nigeria. Naphtha declined on account of weaker market conditions of its derivatives. Olefins (both ethylene and propylene) feedstocks declined despite an increase in the price of oil. VCM became stronger despite dip in the market surge in PVC. EDC was lower on account of obvious market conditions. Styrene monomer (SM) was lackluster and traded at a price lower than last week. Only LDPE gained among all the polyethylenes. All other polyethylenes were weaker this week and were in a lower price range. PP remained subdued although marginal upward movement was seen. Next month could witness stronger price for PP. PVC finally lost its sheen and achieved some price stability. Both styrenics (GPPS and ABS) remained lackluster and ranged in a lower price band. July 2007 is expected to show higher price of oil. Consequently all feedstock and commodity polymers could go up in prices. PVC, LDPE and PP are likely to move upwards July 2007 due to good market conditions. All other commodity polymers are expected to show lackluster performance. OIL Oil increased sharply to US$69.1-69.2/barrel in the week of 25th June 2007, due to increasing stock build up in USA and a strike at the oil fields of Nigeria. Negotiations with oil workers have not yet resolved the issues. Oil is therefore expected to spike beyond US$70/barrel in the coming next week. For July 2007, oil could remain around US$70/barrel. NAPHTHA Naphtha continues to lose ground and decline. Price reached US$666/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. Naphtha is likely to remain lackluster due to market conditions. It is expected to revolve around US$US$660-670/MT in July 2007. POLYMER FEEDSTOCKS ETHYLENE Ethylene continues to lose despite an increase in oil price. To some extent, it can be related to lower price of naphtha but another reason that keeps the prices under control and lower is the subdued market environment. Ethylene remained at US$1075/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. Ethylene forecast, however, is bullish. It is expected to be around US$1100/MT in July 2007. PROPYLENE Propylene, despite an increase in the price of PP, remains sluggish and laggard at about US$1000/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. It could go up to about US $1025-1050/MT in July 2007. Film market needs to be strengthened in order that the price of propylene could reach on a higher range of US$1050/MT. EDC EDC, after a strong fortnight, became sluggish and remained stagnant at US$425-430/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. It is likely to go up as suppliers seem interested in raising prices. Chinese PVC market appears to slipping back into sluggish mode after a good performance for the last few weeks. It is likely to remain at around US$425-440/MT for the next 2 months. VCM VCM was strong in the week of 25th June 2007 and achieved the price of US$820/MT. The suppliers are keen to realize higher price. It is expected that the price in July 2007 could range around US$840-850/MT. STYRENE MONOMER (SM) SM remained subdued at US$1360/MT due to sluggish market conditions. For July the future quotation indicates that SM will remain around US$1320-1330/MT. POLYMERS LDPE LDPE was strong due to good market conditions. The price realization of US$1440/MT was observed in the week of 25th June 2007. July 2007 future appears to show that the price could be higher at US$1480-1500/MT. LLDPE LLDPE did not rise along with LDPE and remained practically at the same price of US$1350/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. July 2007 could witness a price band of US$1370-1380/MT. HDPE HDPE like LLDPE also remained stable at US$1350/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. July 2007 could see a price range of US$1350-1370/MT. PP The price of PP in the week of 25th June 2007 did not have much movement and remained at US$1340/MT. For July 2007 some movement is seen on a higher side. It is quite possible that the price of US$1350-1370/MT could be witnessed in July 2007. PVC After several weeks of stronger price range, PVC finally achieved some stability. The price of PVC remained at US$980/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. PVC is not likely to remain as strong as expected earlier but still could go up to US$1000-1020/MT in July 2007. GPPS GPPPS remained somewhat subdued at around US$1490/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. It is expected that GPPS would remain at US$1500/MT in July 2007. ABS ABS was rather soft at US$1680/MT in the week of 25th June 2007. July 2007 could continue to keep the price in the range of US$1690-1710/MT.
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