Less than 4% growth expected in global Polyethylene consumption in the next 6 years

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From 1990 to 1995, global polyethylene consumption grew at the rate of 5.5%. Since the turn of this century, PE is growing at a slow pace in Europe, North America and Japan and seems to have reached a level of maturity. In 2001, the international polyethylene throughput was 65.74 million tons, actual output was 51.08 million tons, and consumption was pegged at 50.63 million tons. Except in Africa, Asia, Oceania, Latin America, PE demand was less than output. Middle East recorded the maximum productivity and consumption increase.

No significant growth is expected in Europe in the next 5-6 years. In fact, pundits expect only 0.6% growth of Polyethylenes in Europe. Only Russia and Eastern Europe will contribute to some growth. Maack Business expects global PE consumption to reach a level of 77 million tons by 2010. By 2006, global PE productivity will have reached 78.5 million tons and demand will reach 62.92 million tons. But an interesting aspect will be the geographical shift. From the existing developed region of North America, Europe & Japan, consumption will tilt to the new developing economies which will have a share of over 55% of the global consumption by 2010. In Asia, the situation of demand exceeding supply will reverse in a few years. China will be an exception where growth of more than 7% is expected until 2010. The developing economies will continue to grow better and therefore contribute to an overall average growth rate of 3.8% until 2010. This average growth is significantly lower compared to the 5.5% that was seen between 1990-1995.

	GLOBAL PE CAPACITIES IN %
YEAR	LDPE	LLDPE	HDPE	TOTAL
1960	86	–	14	100
1970	76	-	24	100
1980	70	3	27	100
1990	47	20	33	100
2000	32	37	31	100
2005	29	39	32	100
2010	28	42	30	100

REGION	GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION IN %
	1980	1990	2002	2005
WEST EUROPE	37	27	20	20
NORTH AMERICA	35	35	30	27
JAPAN	10	9	6	5
% OF PE CAPACITY	82	71	56	52
EAST EUROPE	7	8	5	5
AFRICA		2	2	2
MIDDLE EAST	1	4	9	13
CENTRAL / SOUTH AMERICA	5	4	5	5
CHINA	1	3	5	6
ASIA / PACIFIC (EXCL. JAPAN)	4	9	18	17
% OF PE CAPACITY	18	29	44	48