2004 has been a very challenging year for
the petrochemical sector due to unprecedented
price fluctuations, ultimately leading to almost
25-40% increase in prices of feedstock as well
as some of the petrochemical products such as
polymers. For the past two decades, the global
petrochemical industry has been struggling with
the dual challenge of growing its business in
a mature market while managing costs. But these
concerns have become particularly acute during
the latest increase in oil prices.
To cope with the new realities, petrochemical
producers are pursuing diverging paths of consolidation
on the one hand and divestitures on the other.
The equation of profit and loss spells out only
two possible solutions for companies seeking to
improve their bottom line: boost revenue or cut
costs. In the case of petrochemicals, producers
have been pursuing a mix of both. On the revenue
side, companies have been attaching greater importance
to enhancing shareholder value to seek quantum
growth through external acquisitions or IPOs.
R&D innovations leading to internal organic
growth have declined in importance. On the cost
side, efforts to streamline operations have been
motivated by the growing sensitivity of petrochemical
prices to crude oil prices, with cost savings
being the key word in various spin-offs.
Price sensitivity of petrochemicals in co relation
to crude oil prices is increasing over the past
decade. From an average of 50% in the last decade
of the 1900s, the correlation between WTI crude
and global ethylene prices have climbed to over
80% by 2004. This stronger connection implies
higher volatility in petrochemical prices corresponding
to current volatile oil prices. This is indicated
in increased volatility in ethylene prices, from
as low as 6% in the early 1990s to over 10% in
2003 and 2004.
Notwithstanding these factors, the petrochemical
industry has prospered as end-product prices have
climbed at a pace faster than oil prices. With
more profits at their disposal, petrochemical
companies are now in a position to pursue large-scale
acquisitions to achieve new growth targets, taking
mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to a new level,
and even renewing pursual of acquisitions that
may have been shelved in the early 1990s. Perhaps
the most active center of M&A activity this
year has been Europe, with 2004 being dubbed as
the year of European spin-offs. Oil majors such
as BP, Shell, and Total, and chemical giants such
as Bayer and BASF are all looking to divest their
petrochemicals portfolios to escape the cyclical
and generally low-margin business of commodity
chemicals.
An overview of global M & A scenario
:
Producers that have undertaken M&A to
improve their bottom line:
Blackstone take over of Celanese, and Lyondell's
Blackstone take over of Celanese, and Lyondell's
plans to acquire Millennium Chemicals. Both are
producers of acetyls in USA and both are short
of ethylene feedstock.
Saudi Arabian petrochemical giant SABIC bought
Saudi Arabian petrochemical giant SABIC bought
DSM’s petrochemicals business in 2002, signalling
the exit of DSM from basic polymers to developing
its high-value-added specialty and fine chemicals
segment.
In Korea, Honam and LG Chem bought out Hyundai
In Korea, Honam and LG Chem bought out Hyundai
Petrochemical. The process will continue with
the buying out of KP Chemical. Atofina’s
purchase of a stake in Samsung Petrochemical is
the largest foreign investments in Korea’s
petrochemical sector.
Producers seeking to shed unprofitable parts
of their business, changing over from commodity
plastics to higher value chemicals:
Shell and BASF announced plans to sell their stakes
in Basell, a 50/50 polyolefins joint venture.
Many of the issues facing the petrochemical industry
today have been a continuation from the past several
decades: the highly cyclical nature of the commodity
chemicals markets, periodic capacity gluts, matured/maturing
markets in the developed economies, and the trend
toward globalization. The difference lies in the
closer linkages among the various markets and
regions of the world and closer scrutiny of companies
to perform for their shareholders. This indicates
an element of uncertainty for the industry.
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