With domestic capacity exceeding
demand, India has been a net exporter of commodity
polymers for the last 4-5 years. This situation
will continue for atleast the next 3 years, particularly
for LLDPE, HDPE, PP and Polystyrene. However,
there is a need to import some polymers like LDPE
and EVA as well as some specialty products. These
specialty products are from the group of polymers
that infact have an excessive capacity. However,
the domestic requirement of these grades is not
large enough for the local producers to manufacture
them in cost-effective manner.
According to our data bank, the overall trade
balance in 2004 was as follows
Polymer Demand in India |
Type |
Local
Production |
Export
|
Import
|
Demand |
LDPE |
195 |
0 |
15 |
210 |
EVA |
5 |
0 |
35 |
40 |
LLDPE |
550 |
150 |
75 |
475 |
HDPE |
1000 |
100 |
70 |
970 |
PP |
1450 |
300 |
100 |
1250 |
PVC |
800 |
10 |
160 |
950 |
Polystyrene |
300 |
100 |
10 |
210 |
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
4300 |
660 |
465 |
4105 |
Several larger and well recognized
international suppliers with marketing offices
in India like Basell, Borouge, Exxon Mobil, Sabic
etc. are fighting to get some market share from
almost 465 KT imports of commodity polymers. The
situation in the next 2-3 years will not change
significantly since an increase in capacity of
LDPE, PP and PVC is on the cards. EVA plant of
RIL (erstwhile Nocil), restarted only in December
2004, will have much higher production from this
year.
Polymer business is very dynamic- prices fluctuate
violently due to dependence on price sensitive
oil and other feedstock materials. Generally price
variation of about US$20-25 is quite common at
any time of the year. The larger consumers, who
have excellent contact with polymer suppliers
always tend to command a lower price.
|