As per forecasts by PetroChina, the listed vehicle of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the country will suffer an ethylene shortage in 2020 despite largescale expansion plans. Domestic ethylene demand will rise from 18.76 mln tons to 25-26 mln tons by 2010, and domestic production will be capable of meeting only 55% of
total demand. Domestic ethylene consumption will rise to 37-41 mln tons by 2020, while
domestic production is estimated to be able to 60% of the total demand, creating a shortage of more than 14 mln tons.
The ethylene industry in China, currently with an annual ethylene production capacity of 7.73 mln tons, is under pressure from competition particularly from the Middle East region that plans to build up 20 mln tons of ethylene production capacity by 2008. The low-cost petrochemicals produced in the Middle East region, targeted mainly towards the Chinese market, will provide strong competition to domestic ethylene producers.
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